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The
annual core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile categories such
as fuels, declined further from 7.0% in September month to 6.5% in
October.
This month’s Consensus Forecast confirms that inflationary
concerns are subsiding.
External
balances strengthening. The
combination of high oil prices, a more favourable exchange rate and
healthy demand from the United States has helped generate strong export
growth this year. According to DANE, exports were up 23.4% in August
over the same month last year, driven primarily by non-traditional
exports, which increased 30.5% over the same period. All of the
major non-traditional export product groups registered double-digit growth
rates with some sectors even doubling sales, notably the paper and leather
manufacturing industries. Among traditional exports, which grew by
17.2%, oil and coffee sales registered strong growth, increasing 23.4% and
10.6% respectively. August data also show a marked increase in
imports, which were up 30.1% over the same month in 1999. The strong
recovery in industry accounted for the lion share of the increase, as
imports in that sector increased 51.6% for the same period.
Nevertheless, consumer goods imports were also on the rise, expanding
23.7% in August over the same month last year. On an accumulated
12-month basis, export growth continued to exceed imports, expanding by
8.7% versus a 3.2% contraction for imports. As a result, the trade
balance registered a surplus of US$ 1.5 billion.
Note:
The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
briefing on Colombia. For more details please click here.
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