The race for the presidency begins.  In the political arena, the preparations for the 8 April presidential and congressional elections are in full swing.  After the deadline to register as a candidate for the presidency expired on 8 January, seventeen candidates have registered with the National election board (JNE).  Election officials registered ten candidates from established political parties.  Meanwhile, candidates from seven new parties were accepted conditionally because of doubts over whether they had gathered the 120,000 signatures necessary to run.  Registration for congressional elections remains open until 8 February.

The presidential front-runner is Alejandro Toledo who leads the polls with 23% voter support.  However, images of Toledo leading supporters into street battles with police during the 2000 presidential race have alienated many of Peru's middle and upper classes and may cost him decisive votes.  Although Toledo has adopted measures to bridge the gap to the business community, he is unlikely to gain the elections in the first round.  If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in April, a second round will be held in May or June between the two top candidates.

Exiled former President Alan García, who led a populist administration from 1985 to 1990, also registered with the JNE.  García was nominated by the left-leaning Aprista party.  During his term as president, García pursued unorthodox fiscal policies and balked at servicing the nation's debt, alienating foreign bankers and driving hyperinflation.  While García now speaks of trickle-down economics and investment in education, the economic chaos he left is still well remembered by Peruvians and marr his chances of an election victory.  Further, García is alleged to have taken US$ 1 million in bribes as president and faces arrest upon return to Peru from Colombian exile.

The other candidates, who are primarily oriented toward the free market economic policies, highlight their democratic credentials and distance themselves from Fujimori.  Nevertheless, most candidates currently trail Toledo with single-digit support levels.  Candidates include ex-government ombudsman Jorge Santistevan from Causa Democratica, who just received the endorsement of Lima mayor Alberto Andrade and his Somos Perú party; rightist long-time opponent of Fujimori Lourdes Flores; Fernando Olivera, a respected lawmaker who released a video of Montesinos allegedly bribing an official; and former Fujimori cabinet members Carlos Boloña (economy minister) and Maria Cuculiza (human development minister), whose links to Fujimori will most likely cost both of them the crucial support.

Note:  The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast briefing on Peru.  For more details please click here.

For five-year forecasts, please click here.