|
Growth
continues to remain absent.
Recent data releases indicate that the economy is likely to have
remained in recession in the first quarter of this year.
The National Statistical Institute (INDEC) reports that seasonally
adjusted industrial production dropped 4.5% in March over the same month
last year.
The INDEC data show that key sectors experienced strong
contractions, particularly textile production (-30.9%) as well as
automotive vehicle (-27.6%) and non-automotive machinery (-21.6%) output.
The government hopes that the recent elimination of tariffs on
capital good imports from non-Mercosur countries will give industry a
strong boost.
Consensus Forecast results indicate that continued recession in the
first half of this year is likely to offset more accelerated growth
towards the end of the year and as a result industrial production is
likely to grow at a healthy pace.
Nevertheless, panellists appear confident that the government’s
push for a recovery of the domestic industry will materialize, as
industrial output is expected to jump next year.
The
Economy Minister remains convinced that GDP growth will stay on target
this year at 2.5%, driven by a strong acceleration in the fourth quarter
of the year when growth is anticipated to exceed 5%.
This month’s Consensus Forecast indicates that economic growth
will remain subdued in the first half of the year. Panellists do not
share Cavallo’s optimistic scenario of a strong acceleration in the
second half and expect growth to expand only at a more moderate pace in
the last quarter.
Note:
The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
briefing on Argentina. For more details please click here.
|
