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Discontent grows as opposition
petitions Supreme Court to review President’s fitness to remain in office
The key opposition party to President Chávez,
Democratic Action (AD, Acción Democratica) has petitioned the high court
to examine the President’s mental fitness to continue to govern the
country as permitted in the 1999 Constitution (Article 233). If the
Supreme Court accepts the claim, the President will be ordered to undergo
a series of psychological exams by a certified medical board to evaluate
his suitability to remain in office. If the tests conclude that the
President is not fit to continue to hold office, the National Assembly is
required to vote on revoking the mandate with the Vice President assuming
the office until new elections are called. The opposition has decided to
pursue its current Supreme Court strategy, since constitutional norms to
not allow for removal by referendum until a President has served more than
half of his term, which would require waiting until the beginning of
2003. In addition, 20% of the electorate would have to sign the petition
for a referendum, which would pass by simple majority vote with a minimum
of 25% voter turnout (Article 72). The opposition hopes to take advantage
of the President’s increasing weakness in opinion polls – Chávez’s
approval ratings are currently placed as low as 18% in some surveys – as
Venezuelans increasingly feel that the President has not lived up to his
promises to lower unemployment (Nov 2001: 11.5%) and combat corruption.
Key supporters of Chávez have left the government and begun talking to the
opposition, most recently Interior Minister, Luis Miquilena, who was
considered a moderating force in the administration. The president’s
concern about the gradual deterioration in military support prompted
Chávez to appoint Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, a former naval captain, to
replace Miquilena. However, further deterioration in the president’s
political capital and a weakening of his government may trigger increased
social backlash and a military intervention cannot be ruled out.
Note:
The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
briefing on Venezuela. For more details please click here.
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