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Independent Uribe new Colombian
president in first round
On 26 May, Colombians voted Álvaro Uribe Vélez as the new president.
Uribe, the former Liberal Party member turned independent, won the
presidency in the first round, garnering 52.9% of the vote. Even though
Uribe was the clear favourite to win the presidential election, the first
round victory was unexpected, as polls just prior to the vote showed Uribe
just short of the majority victory (May Poll: 49.3%). Uribe succeeded in
20 of the 33 departments and triumphed in the major cities of Medellín,
Bogotá y Cali. Abstention from the vote reached 53.7%, despite the
heightened security measures adopted by authorities to curtail possible
guerrilla attacks. Nevertheless, the resounding victory gives Uribe a
clear mandate. The inauguration is scheduled for 7 August.
Uribe is firmly committed to a military build-up to combat the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC, Fuerzas Armadas
Revolucionarias de Colombia) and as a result social spending is likely to
be cut back if the government wishes to maintain fiscal discipline. Given
that the new president is independent from both major parties, the
Conservatives and Liberals, he relies on a political alliance crafted
following the 10 March legislative elections, which includes Conservatives
and members of his own independent movement, Primero Colombia, for support.
While his movement scored high in the recent congressional elections, it
lacks a majority in Congress. Therefore Uribe’s position in Congress is
weak and legislative initiatives will rely on the ability of his
government to maintain its alliances with Conservative legislators. The
president’s agenda is ambitious and includes:
- Constitutional reform.
The political reform efforts are focused on reforming the Constitution to
provide for a unicameral National Assembly of 150 representatives to
replace the current bicameral structure.
- Economic reform.
Uribe is keen on implementing changes to the existing pension system and
the current social security law (Ley 100). Additional initiatives will
include the building of 100,000 new public housing units annually,
maintaining subsidies for public service tariffs and subsidising coffee
and cotton industries.
- Government reorganization.
The new administration will seek to eliminate several national and
municipal judicial bodies, cut back presidential spending, freeze salaries
for legislators and judges as well as reduce the number of embassies
worldwide.
- Military initiatives.
The president plans to eliminate obligatory military service and instead
to create a professional army of 100,000 troops. Uribe also hopes to
increase civilian participation in fighting terrorism by establishing a
national network of one million informants.
Finance minister is seasoned
political player
One of the first appointments made by the president-elect was that of the
finance minister. Roberto Junguito Bonnet is the current Colombian
delegate to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a former finance
minister under the administrations of Belisario Betancur (1984-1986) and
Virgilio Barco Vargas (1986-1990). Junguito was one of the favourites for
the position given his national and international experience. He is widely
expected to continue the incumbent government’s fiscal agenda. The new
finance minister’s experience in the IMF is likely to facilitate
negotiations for the renewal of the current 3-year, US$ 2.4 billion
Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF, which expires in September.
Continued IMF support will enable the government to enjoy continued access
to multilateral funds considered key to finance public sector spending.
Junguito will face the challenge of implementing further needed structural
reforms, particularly of the pension and tax system as well as the
government bureaucracy.
Note:
The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
briefing on Colombia. For more details please click here.
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