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Peru - Economic Briefing July 2003

Toledo Reshuffles Cabinet as Popular Support Plummets (continued)

Cabinet resigns ahead of time as Toledo’s popularity drops to new lows
On 24 June, the entire ministerial cabinet of President Alejandro Toledo resigned. This is not uncommon in Peru. In fact, the cabinet is traditionally reshuffled once a year. However, changes typically occur on the occasion of the Independence Day on 28 July. This year, the move was made ahead of time to halt the persistent erosion in President Toledo’s popularity. Despite the resilient state of the economy, Toledo’s approval rating has continued to drop and has now reached a new low of 11%, down from almost 60% when he took office in 2001. Support has dropped due to a series of personal scandals and flailing public confidence in Toledo’s ability to deliver on ambitious election promises. Moreover, the country has just ended a bout of social unrest and strikes, which prompted Toledo to declare a state of emergency in June and ended in one shot demonstrator and several hundred injured. Finally, in the week prior to the cabinet resignation, Congress had rejected fiscal reforms designed to fund a salary increase promised by Toledo to end the strikes. According to Finance Minister Javier Silva Ruete, the rejection could create a budget shortfall of about 190 million soles (US$ 55 million).

Beatriz Merino replaces Luis Solari as prime minister
The cabinet reshuffle is intended to improve support for Toledo in opposition-dominated Congress without alienating his own party members of Perú Posible, which were pressuring for a higher representation in the new cabinet. The main change in the new cabinet is the new prime minister. As the replacement of Prime Minister Luis Solari, head of Perú Posible, Beatriz Merino has become the first woman in Peruvian history to hold this position. Toledo hopes that the appointment will improve his position in Congress. Beatriz Merino, a 55-year-old lawyer who had been running Peru's tax agency is well respected and even opposition leader Lourdes Flores, who ran for president in 2001, welcomed her appointment. Merino has degrees from Harvard and the London School of Economics. She served as a senator and congresswoman during most of the 1990s, representing the opposition party Independent Moralist Front (FIM, Frente Independiente Moralizador), and is alleged to have close ties with writer and former presidential candidate Mario Vargas Llosa.

While the Merino nomination was generally welcomed, some political observers claimed that the reshuffling of other cabinet positions was not going far enough, as key cabinet positions were left unchanged. In particular, with the confirmation of Javier Silva Ruete as Economy Minister and Alberto Sanabria Ortiz as Finance and Interior Minister, key policy areas are likely to develop along the lines in the past. In total, Toledo swore in six new cabinet members, ratified eight ministers and had two ministers swap portfolios.

 

Note:  The above text is an abridged version of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast country briefing.  For more details please click here.

For five-year forecasts, please click here.

 

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