Colombia - Economic Briefing November 2004

Exports and Domestic Demand Remain Strong

The healthy growth observed in key markets, particularly the United States and Venezuela, is helping to provide a strong push to the export sector, despite the persistence of the strong currency appreciation observed throughout the year.  Meanwhile, domestic demand remains robust, as interest rates are low and unemployment continues to decline.

Private consumption benefits from low interest rate setting
In August, national retail sales rose 4.1% over the same month last year.  The August figure was below the 6.0% growth experienced in July.  Healthy growth in automotive and motorcycle (+31.3% year-on-year), automotive lubricants (+13.6% yoy), household appliances and furniture (+12.4% yoy) and vehicle parts (+11.5% yoy) sales drove the overall pace of retail sector in August.  The retail sectors to experience strong contractions over the prior year were office furniture and equipment (-8.4% yoy) and household goods (-2.8% yoy).  The August figure confirms that the upward trend in private consumption remained intact in the third quarter.  In August, the annual average growth rate rose from 4.7% in July to 5.0% - the fourth consecutive increase. 

Unemployment dropping amid favourable conditions
The resilience of economic growth, in particular construction and manufacturing, is complemented by favourable developments in employment.  In the third quarter, unemployment reached 12.8%, 1.5 percentage points below the rate observed in the same period last year and well below the 14.1% registered in the prior quarter.  Urban unemployment also dropped from 16.1% in September last year to 14.9%.  In the coming months, seasonal hiring should help the unemployment rate to decline further, which should help to drive private consumption further.

Prospects for further growth in private consumption good
In addition to declining unemployment, the retail sector is also benefiting from the current low interest rate environment, easing credit conditions and the real income boost associated with the strong currency appreciation.  The September survey of the National Retailers Federation (Fenalco, Federación Nacional de Comerciantes) indicates that retail sales maintained their pace in September.  The survey shows that the percentage of businesses that experienced improved or the same level of sales rose from 70% in August to 71% in September.

Industry on robust expansion path amid export drive and rising domestic demand
Industrial output is accelerating the pace.  In August, industrial production increased 8.9% over the same month last year, which was more than double the 3.8% expansion observed in the prior month and resumed the trend of strong output growth observed since February.  The strongest growth within the industrial sub-sectors was registered in automotive vehicles, household appliances and transport equipment, while wood and glass production dropped.  Industry continues to benefit from the low interest rate setting and a revival in domestic demand, which is serving to augment the already healthy boost received from the improved export setting.

Resilient export growth provides further boost
The most recent trade data indicate that exports continued along a strong expansion path with total sales rising 38.4% in August over the same month last year, compared to a 28.8% increase in imports.  The August export figure represented a strong acceleration compared to the prior month, when exports had grown 13.5%.  Non-traditional exports provided the main boost to the August export drive, as sales rose 45.3% over the same month last year.  Automobile, plastics and clothing exports were the key sectors driving non-traditional exports.  Furthermore, traditional exports also expanded at a robust 27.9% in August over the same month last year, as oil, nickel, coal and coffee experienced a strong boost from mining global demand.