Brazil

Unemployment - October 2002

The numbers in detail

The open unemployment rate declined to 7.4% in October, slightly below the September figure (7.5%) but well above the rate observed in October last year (6.8%).  The data are from the IBGE Monthly Employment Survey taken in the six major metropolitan areas ( Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Porto Alegre).

Note: End of period and 6-month average. Monthly unemployment rate as percentage of total labour force (7-day).
Source: Instituto Brasileiro do Geografia y Estadistica.

The number of persons economically active experienced a slight decline of - 0,2%, while the number of employed remained stable.  The number of persons actively seeking employment dropped moderately (- 2,3%).  Furthermore, in absolute number the IBGE data show that the number of total unemployed declined from 1.46 million in September to 1.43 million in October, as the total number of employed remained virtually stable at 17.8 million.

Key behind the October improvement was healthier economic activity in the construction and services industry.  Nevertheless, prospects are not promising, as increased costs to businesses resulting from the recent currency deterioration and higher interest rates may force further cutbacks in the labour force.  Despite the recent strengthening - the real has strengthened 3.7% since the end of October through 20 November - the currency still remains 34.0% weaker than at the end of last year.  Furthermore, with the 20 November Central Bank benchmark interest rate hike of 100 basis points, rates are now at their highest levels in three years (see Brazil Interest Rates for more detail).
 

Forecasts: This indicator is covered in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.  For 5-year projections, including quarterly forecasts for the next two years, please click here