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The
Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela) reports:
Preliminary estimates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth indicate
that the economic activity contracted 16.7% in the fourth quarter of 2002
over the same period in 2001. The result, when combined with
declines in the first three quarters of the year, brought the annual drop
in GDP to 8.9%.
Unfavourable developments in GDP were reflected in both the oil and
non-oil sectors of the economy, where economic activity declined 25.5% and
12.4% respectively during the fourth quarter. Institutionally,
public sector activity dropped 19.8%, compared to 15.0% for the private
sector.
In the oil sector, the fourth quarter results were affected principally by
the virtual standstill of production and sales activities for crude oil
and refined products during December. Private oil companies
operating under the oil sector opening in the Orinoco belt continued to
see growth in production levels.
The non-oil sector experienced very moderate growth in mining and
communications only, where output rose 2.1% and 0.6% respectively.
The balance of sectors saw strong declines in activity, which dragged down
aggregate internal demand. The December standstill in economic
activity was particularly detrimental for manufacturing, commerce,
construction, transport and storage.
In fact, the manufacturing industry registered a 22.9% decline in activity
in the fourth quarter, determined by declines in all sub-sectors.
The drop in construction activity was the result of lower public sector
demand and lower volume of output in private sector residential and
non-residential works. With regards to commerce, the poor showing
reflects a strong decline in consumer spending and the halt in economic
activity throughout December. Finally, transport and storage output
experienced a 17.4% decline amid the strong 40.4% decline in imports of
goods and services.
Consumption is expected to have dropped 20.7%, well above previous
periods, amid the 21.6% decline in aggregated demand and an 18.7% drop in
external demand.
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth by Sector,
Q4 2002 |
More detailed information
available at the
Banco Central
de Venezuela (BCV).
Forecasts: This indicator is covered in the
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. For 5-year projections, including quarterly forecasts for
the next two years, please click here
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